Thursday 7 May 2015

Vladimir: 18 years of Putin



Hey Gentle reader, 16 years ago today, Vladimir Putin became President of Russia. Here is my view on the enigma and some of the ways he has changed Russia.

 

Putin's critics say he has led Russia into an autocratic backroad, but his supporters say that the stability he brought after Boris Yeltsin's tenure and the way he stood up to the west makes him the best man for the job.


just days before he was elected to the Russian presidency in 2000, Putin told the BBC that Russia was “part of European culture” and that he “would not rule out” the possibility of it joining NATO.


As Putin celebrates the 15th anniversary of acceding to power on 7 May 2000, his country has changed beyond all recognition from the chaotic, open free-for-all it was under his predecessor.  It faces isolation, sanctions, possibly a new cold war. At home, despite economic decline Putin enjoys perhaps the highest popularity rating of any Kremlin leader – an approval rating that topped 86% in February.

Whatever your opinion about Vladimir Putin, it cannot be denied that his impact on Russia and the rest of the world has been great.


Vladimir Putin rides a horse in southern Siberia. 

The “near abroad” is a little nearer. The conflict in Ukraine has severely damaged the relationship between Russia and the west over the past year. This however, is just Vladimir asserting Russia's "rights" in the lands that border its territory. The Russian's call this land the "near abroad". 

I don’t know why the west was so surprised at Putin's attitude towards Crimea and Ukraine. in 2008 he used Russian troops in independent Georgia to protect his countries interests in a region that had been pressurized by NATO's presence.

Tank-like vehicle with soldiers aboard 


The Ukraine gamble has been more risky. Public opinion certainly favoured the Crimean manoeuvre, but Russians have been killed in Donetsk and Luhansk.

Sanctions as well as plummeting oil prices have hurt the Russian economy. Putin has his country on his side, for now, and has achieved his strategic aims, but not without some cost.
Under Boris Yeltsin, Russia pursued a policy of grudging cooperation with NATO. All that changed under Putin. Since his first interview with the BBC, Putin has insisted that NATO’s eastward expansion represents a threat to his country.
Putin’s position has huge backing in Russia – and plenty of support from those in the west who believe that NATO only exists to deal with the insecurities that its existence creates.
A suspected Russian submarine in the Stockholm archipelago prompted a huge hunt by the Swedish navy in October, and a Scandinavian Airlines plane with 132 passengers taking off from Copenhagen in March nearly collided with a Russian reconnaissance aircraft that had not transmitted its position.


While Putin may have dithered on economic issues, he has consistently moved toward greater consolidation of his own power. In 2004, he signed a law allowing the president to appoint regional governors, a privilege he mostly retains despite reforms prompted by street protests in 2011-12.
Putin’s deal with Dmitry Medvedev allowed him to return to the presidency in 2012. In the meantime, Russia’s "Yes-Man" parliament had passed a law that extends the presidential term from four to six years. Putin has said he won’t rule out running again in 2018, and if he wins, his time in power could surpass that of Leonid Brezhnev – 18 years – and even Stalin.

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When Putin became president, Russia was just emerging from the disastrous market reforms of the 1990s and the 1998 financial crisis. He didn't have a grand economic vision. 
He slashed taxes to benefit business.
He renationalised key sectors.

The rising price of oil, Russia's biggest export, financed unprecedented prosperity. The average Russian's disposable income doubled between 1999 and 2006.
 
The 2008 financial crash had a disastrous effect on the Russian economy however because although there had been growth there had not been economical diversification or industrial modernization and even without the sanctions and drop in oil prices, economists thought long-term stagnation was a reality for Russia.


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With the imprisonment of oil tycoon Mikhail Khodorkovsky and the assassinations of several prominent opposition voices, Putin’s Russia was already a place where dissent was not particularly welcome.
But the pivotal moment came during the winter of 2011-12. Rolling opposition protests briefly threatened an Arab spring of sorts in Moscow. Putin moved quickly. A slew of criminal cases on dubious charges were opened against anti-corruption campaigner Alexei Navalny and 27 protesters from the May 2012 Bolotnaya Square rally.
Since Putin’s return to the Kremlin in 2012, new laws and larger fines for those taking part in protests not sanctioned by the authorities to as much as 1m roubles (£13,000) or up to five years of forced labour or prison for repeat violations. 
 Image result for boris nemtsov putin
Amid growing patriotic fervour and rhetoric about traitors– Putin suggested in December that opposition members could be part of a “fifth column” undermining the country – the popular opposition movement is all but dead. Symbolically, one of its leading voices, former deputy PM Boris Nemtsov, was assassinated in front of the Kremlin in February. The crime was allegedly committed by security officers loyal to Chechnya’s ruler, Ramzan Kadyrov, who was awarded a medal by Putin shortly afterwards.


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Despite a state wide anti-corruption campaign, Putin’s Russia has failed to shake off accusations of being fundamentally dishonest. In 2014, Russia was ranked 136 out of 175 in Transparency International’s corruption perception index down from 127 in 2013 and 133 in 2012. 
The Organised Crime and Corruption Reporting Project also named Putin its 'Man of the Year' after its investigations found that he had engaged with the mafia to create what it called a “military-industrial-political-criminal” complex to launder money and promote his interests abroad, including in the transfer of weapons to rebels in eastern Ukraine.
Although little information is available on his personal wealth, many expect that Putin himself has benefited from state corruption. Allegations have swirled for years that an extravagant palace being built on the Black Sea coast – reportedly guarded by the presidential secret service and now owned by a Putin confidant – secretly belongs to him and was paid for with embezzled funds.


 


With independent media sources in Russia being put under pressure, Putin put a TV presenter with very anti-American views (Dmitry Kiselyov) in charge of the state news agency.
His job was to oversee the expansion of Russia Today and other pro Kremlin news agencies that peddle the 21st century propaganda.
In November 2014, the UK media regulator threatened Russia Today with sanctions for breaking Impartiality rules.


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